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Saturday, October 15, 2005

Cutting the human-bird influenza (Extirpando la gripe aviar-humana).

One knows that the human-bird flu (caused by the mutant virus: H5N1), began in the 2003, in southeast asian countries like: Asia:Tailandia, Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Tibet, South Korea, Japan and, that in spite of the adopted measures at the moment the flu continue extending towards countries of the European border:Turkey, Russia, Rumania. According to the World-Wide Organization of the Health (WHO), a sprout again of the human-bird flu (October/05), has killed 63 humans to date, in Asia.
1) An obvious question is :Why the human-bird flu, was originated in Asia?. It will be that there, less hygiene exists?, less programs of bird vaccination?, less balanced foods for chickens?, adverse environmental conditions?. Without denying the importance of each one of the previous items, we will say that a single factor exists, not sufficiently emphasized by journalistic means and until by the own authorities of health. And, according to our opinion, it is the most important. With complete certainty the bird-flu and its variant: the human-bird one, began in Asia, due to the extreme high poblational density of chicken and human beings, in those countries. Single in extreme conditions of stack (excessive chickens and humans in very small physical areas), made possible the development of epidemics of bird and human-bird flu. All pathogenic virus to survive and to propagate needs at least 1 million alive stockpiled chickens. If an infected chicken dies, the pathogenic virus is transferred the following alive chicken, following the same process (killing more chickens), while the stack chain stays lives. But if the chickens (and the humans), are dispersed or, they are a few, the virus when not being able to live in them, dies. Then the epidemic in blossoming aborts or, never developed. For that reason as opposed to all viral epidemic, the fundamental measurement is to disperse (or, to avoid), the stacks. Annexed effects (nonsimilar), to the dispersion, are the added ones by the vetoes to the import of contaminated bird-raising meat. The first Peruvian hunting-recolectors (bands of 20 humans, :12 000 years b.C.), never had viral epidemics, given their little population density. If the bird influenza or, or the human-bird flu, arrived at America or, to Peru, the centers and more affected areas would be, the bird and human centers (favelas of Rio de Janeiro, Haiti's poor areas, Harlem and Queens in the USA, the district of La Victoria, en Lima-Peru, etc), more densely populated.
2) the second, is to state that the political antiepidemics, of health have stopped being national, now are global and, its nonsingle repercussion is sanitary, but also economic. For that reason our Minister of Health, would have to send to the brevity to her Vice-minister to Thailand and Colombia, so that he observes in situ, the adopted measures of protection and, soon to convoke to her initiative to all the Ministers of Health of South America to mount a Latin American global anti-epidemic structure. The sanitary measures, taken by countries in individual form, no longer serve.
3) With respect to the treatment, the more important preventive measure is the production of vaccines and artificial antibodies. The Butantan Institute of Brazil, has the technology to do them. In the long term, the optics is different. It is necessary to worry about the design of cities without human stack and to design vaccines (that like the virus), also mute. For it it is necessary to work nonsingle with biologists and immunologists, but also with computer science mathematicians and engineers. The material of base to investigate would be obvious, the bird and human-bird pathogenic strains, that are discovered.
4) Finally, it is necessary to take advantage of the comparative advantage pharmaceutical laboratories of emergent superpowers like India and Brazil, able to supply and to produce drugs and vaccines against the bird influenza, to very economic prices.

Extirpando la gripe aviar-humana
Se sabe que la gripe aviar-humana (ocasionada por el virus mutante : H5N1), se inició en el 2003, en los paises del sudeste asiático :Tailandia,Corea, Vietnam, Malasia, Indonesia, China, Tibet, Corea del Sur, Japón y, que pese a las medidas adoptadas continúa extendiéndose actualmente hacia paises de la frontera europea :Turquía, Rusia, Rumania. Según la Organizacion Mundial de la Salud (OMS), un rebrote de la gripe aviaria (Octubre/05), ha cobrado hasta la fecha, 63 humanos muertos, en el Asia.

1) Una pregunta obvia es ¿porque se originó en Asia?. Será que ahí, existe menos higiene?, menos programas de vacunación aviar?,alimentos para pollos, menos balanceados?, ¿condiciones medioambientales adversas?. Sin negar la importancia de cada uno de estos items, solo diremos que existe un factor, no suficientemente enfatizado por los medios periodísticos y hasta por las propias autoridades de salud. Y, según nuestra opinión, es el más importante. Con toda seguridad la gripe aviar y su variante : la aviar-humana, se iniciaron en Asia, en razón de la alta densidad poblacional aviaria y humana, existente en esos países. Solo en condiciones extremas de hacinamiento (excesivos pollos y humanos en areas físicas minúsculas), es posible la gesta de epidemias de gripe aviar y aviar-humana. Todo virus patógeno para sobrevivir y propagarse necesita por lo menos 1 millón de pollos vivos, hacinados. Si un pollo infectado muere, el virus patógeno se traslada al siguiente pollo vivo, siguiendo el mismo proceso (matando más pollos), mientras la cadena de hacinamiento se mantenga viva. Pero si los pollos (y los humanos), estan dispersos o, son escasos, el virus al no poder habitar en ellos, muere. Entonces la epidemia en ciernes aborta o, nunca se desarrolla. Por eso frente a toda epidemia viral, la medida fundamental es dispersar (o, evitar), los hacinamientos. Efectos anexos (no similares), a la dispersión, son los adicionados por los vetos a la importación de carne avícola contaminada. Los primeros cazadores-recolectores peruanos (bandas de 20 humanos, hace :12 000 años a,C.), nunca tuvieron epidemias virales, dada su escasa densidad poblacional. Si la gripe aviar o, la aviar-humana, arribaran a América o, al Perú, los centros y áreas más afectadas serían, los centros aviarios y humanos (favelas de Rio de Janeiro, Harlem y Queens en USA, areas pobres de Haiti, el distrito de la Victoria en Lima-Perú, etc), más densamente poblados.

2) Lo segundo, es constatar que las políticas antiepidemias, de salud han dejado de ser nacionales, ahora son globales y, su repercusión no solo es sanitaria, sino también económica. Por eso nuestra Ministra de Salud, debería enviar a la brevedad a su Viceministro a Tailandia y Colombia, para que observe in situ, las medidas de protección adoptadas y, luego citar a iniciativa suya a todos los Ministros de Salud de Sudamérica para montar una estructura antiepidémica global latinoamericana. Las medidas sanitarias, tomadas por paises en forma individual, ya no sirven

Respecto al tratamiento, la medida preventiva más importante es la producción de vacunas y anticuerpos artificiales. El Instituto Butantan de Brasil, dispone de la tecnología para hacerlos. A largo plazo, la óptica es diferente. Hay que preocuparse por el diseño de ciudades sin hacinamiento y diseñar vacunas (que al igual que los virus), que tambien muten. Para ello hay que trabajar no solo con biologos e inmunólogos, sino también con matemáticos e ingenieros informáticos. El material de base a investigar serían obviamente, las cepas patógenas aviarias y aviarias-humanas, que se vayan descubriendo.

Finalmente, hay que aprovechar la ventaja comparativa de laboratorios farmacéuticos de superpotencias emergentes como la India y el propio Brasil, capaces de ofertar y producir medicamentos y vacunas contra la gripe aviar, a precios muy económicos.


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