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Sunday, October 23, 2005

Chilean debate.Thus we saw it (Así, lo vimos).



The 19/12/05, the first TV debate was made (including the CNN), between the 4 aspirings candidates to the presidency of Chile. There were questions, few retorts and until exceeded the time. Thus we saw it:
1-In a presidential race, and when it lacks so little for the election, a peaceful moderation is not recommendable. It is necessary to bet by the change (including the confrontation) and, if this is opened and full of concrete ideas, better. The inconvenience to be well "with all" (equivalent not to be well,with anybody), can be explained by Sebastian Piñera (Renovation Nacional -RN-Neoliberal. Center-right), the great loser of the TV confrontation. He lowered his intention of vote from 23 to 13%, according to surveys to recognized voters, through fixed telephony (independent company :Time Research). He prioritized enterprise ideas: commercial relations with Japan, Korea, China, harbor exit to Bolivia without jeopardizing chilean sovereignity, commercial nexuses with neighboring countries, creation of jobs, etc. It costs to understand to him that the suitable development of the human person although has to do with the economy, it is but by the existence or forges of lubricated strap of human economic-cultural-social ascent, structured not well in present Chile, in spite of its buoyant macroeconomics. He did not speak like the captain of all Chile, but like particular industralist.He did not speak about the real chilean problem :social inequality (there, like in Peru: 10%, of the chilean people monopolizes the 50% of the national wealth), economic problems of the dismissed ones, etc. Since the 19 of October, no longer 4 candidates run, 1 lowered of the horse.
2-Geopolitically speaking, the problems of Chile, in the next 25 years, will be centered on the lack of enough energy power on account of its increasing intermediate technology and in the added value that must be given to their thin natural resources. Old problem, which caused in the past wars against Peru and Bolivia. Yesterday was the guano and the saltpeter, today is the gás. While Peru, Bolivia and Argentina, swim in gas, Chile lacks him. And, while Peru uses 6,9% http://www.elcomercioperu.com.pe/EdicionImpresa/Html/2005-10-23/impEconomia0390890.html of it in its power matrix, Chile (without gas reserves), uses a 29%. If the Chilean class leader historically understood that the destiny of its country is chained to the one of Peru and Bolivia, then massive and sincere cooperations would emerge (where all win), with its neighbors, more than confrontations than lead to anything. For that reason the vision of Michelle Bachelet: Democratic National Agreement. Socialist Party, by to be clear (tunnel's construction, gas conduits, value added to its products, cultural tourism, diversification of power sources -to clarify its differences with Argentina -who does not want sell gas to them-, education improvement, health reduction of the poverty), maintains good intentions of vote. Although Bachelet wants to win in first round, it has a problem:overexhibition. In the debate, Lavin and Hirsch, threw many piñazos to her. The astute Lavin, has found two cracks: low payments of the dismissed ones, delinquency and some cases of nepotism. The votes that Bachelet loses will be endorsed to Hirsch.
3) Joaquin Lavin (Union Democratica Independiente. UDI. Neoliberal. Right). He looks for to revert the increasing delinquency, to increase the number of jobs, to improve the neighbor's country relations without yielding sobereignity. Astute, he praised to Hirsch to reduce points to Bachelet. For us, its aggressiveness, assure him the second return against Bachelet.
4-Thomas Hirsch (Juntos Podemos Más -JPM-Leftist), counts with the support of the Christian left and the Communist party. Hirsch, has like effective main weapon, emphasizing in the social differences. In fact, its own base is reduced. He is fed on the displeasures of always and the mistakes of his adversaries. He wishes to integrate itself economically to Argentina, Peru and Bolivia. He wishes a TLC, that favors the development of the chilean Pymes. He pleads thus for a diminution of taxes to medium sized companies. Something like the subsidies and the state intervention return.
5-Conclusion :there will be a second round between Bachelet and Lavin. The articulator of the victory of one of them does not seem to be Piñera, but Hirsch. Still being allied, Piñera and Lavin, do not know clearly like winning, without the aid of Hirsch. We had preferred a debate with immediate retort. At the end, it will be necessary to wait for the last debate of November.
Chile electoral. Asi, lo vimos.
El 19/12/05, se realizó el primer debate televisado (incluída la CNN), entre los 4 aspirantes a la presidencia de Chile. Hubo preguntas, pocas réplicas y hasta sobró tiempo. Así lo vimos:

1-En una carrera presidencial, y cuando falta tan poco para la elección, no es recomendable una prístina moderación. Hay que apostar por el cambio (incluída la confrontación) y, si esta es abierta y plena de ideas concretas, mejor. La inconveniencia de estar “bien con todos “ (equivalente a no estar con nadie), lo puede explicar mejor Sebastián Piñera (Renovación Nacional –RN-Neoliberal. Centro-derecha), el gran perdedor de la confrontación televisiva. Bajó de 23 a 13%, según encuestas realizadas a votantes reconocidos, vía telefonía fija (empresa independiente:Time Research). Priorizó ideas empresariales : relaciones comerciales con Japón, Corea, China, salida portuaria a Bolivia -sin comprometer la soberania chilena- nexos comerciales con países vecinos, creación de puestos de trabajo,etc. Le cuesta entender que el desarrollo adecuado de la persona humana aunque tiene que ver con la economía, lo es más por la existencia o forja de engrasadas correas de ascenso socio-económico-cultural, no bien estructuradas en el Chile actual, a pesar de su boyante macroeconomía. No habló como el capitán de todo Chile, habló como empresario particular, más de sí mismo que de la real problemática chilena :desigualdad social (allá, al igual que en el Perú, el 10%, acapara el 50% de la riqueza nacional), problemas económicos de los cesantes,etc. Desde el 19 de octubre, ya no corren 4 candidatos, 1 se bajó del caballo.
2-Geopoliticamente hablando, los problemas del Chile, en los próximos 25 años, estarán centrados en las necesidades energéticas de su creciente tecnología intermedia y en el valor agregado que puedan darle a sus magros recursos naturales. Problema antiguo, propiciante en el pasado de sendas guerras con Perú y Bolivia. Ayer fué el guano y el salitre, hoy es el gás. Mientras Perú, Bolivia y Argentina, nadan en gas, Chile carece de él. Y, mientras Perú emplea en su matriz energética un 6,9% de gas: Chile (sin reservas de gas), utiliza un 29%. Si la clase dirigente chilena entendiese que el destino de su país esta encadenado históricamente al de Perú y Bolivia, entonces estructurarían cooperaciones sinceras (donde todos ganan) y masivas con sus vecinos, más que confrontaciones que a nada conducen. Por eso la visión de Michelle Bachelet : Concertación Nacional Democrática. Partido Socialista, al ser clara (construcción de tuneles, conductos gasiferos, valor agregado a sus productos, turismo cultural, diversificación de fuentes energéticas, aclarar sus diferencias con Argentina -que no les quiere vender gas- mejora de educación, salud reducción de la pobreza), mantiene altas intenciones de voto. Aunque Bachelet quiere ganar en primera vuelta, tiene un problema :sobreexposición. En el debate, Lavin y Hirsch, le tiraron muchos piñazos. El ladino Lavin, ha encontrado dos grietas : bajas pagas de los cesantes, delincuencia y algunos casos de nepotismo. Los votos que pierda Bachelet serán endosados a Hirsch.
3) Joaquin Lavin (Unión Democrática Independiente. UDI. Neoliberal. Derecha). Busca revertir la creciente delincuencia, incrementar el número de empleos, mejorar la relación vecinal sin ceder soberania. Astuto, elogia a Hirsch para restarle puntos a Bachelet. Para nosotros, su agresividad, le está asegurando la segunda vuelta contra Bachelet.
4-Thomas Hirsch (Juntos Podemos Más –JPM-Izquierda), cuenta con el apoyo de la izquierda cristiana y el partido comunista. Hirsch, tiene como efectiva arma principal, el enfatizar en las diferencias sociales. Su base propia es reducida. Se alimenta de los descontentos de siempre, de los errores de sus adversarios y de algunas ideas relevantes. Desea integrarse económicamente a Argentina, Perú y Bolivia. Desea un TLC, que favorezca el desarrollo de las Pymes chilenas. Aboga por una disminución de impuestos a las medianas empresas. Algo así, como que regresan los subsidios y la intervención estatal.
5-Conclusion :Habrá segunda vuelta entre Bachelet y Lavin. El gozne articulador de la victoria de uno de ellos no parece ser Piñera, sino Hisrch. Aún aliados : Piñera y Lavin, no tienen claro como ganar, sin la ayuda de Hirsch. Hubiésemos preferido un debate con réplica inmediata. En fín, habrá que esperar el último debate de Noviembre.

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