Polls perceptions.

The survey of Apoyo, Opinion y Mercado –AOM- (14/05/06. Margin of error: 4,4%. Level of confidence:95%), entrusted and published by the Sunday Edition of http://www.elcomercioperu.com.pe/EdicionOnline/Html/2006-05-14/onlPortada0505209.html El Comercio de Lima - around the intention of peruvian presidential vote- aside from confirming what a thick sector of Peruvians, thinks around the kindnesses and defects of the candidates, permits also to scrutinize THE FEARS BUT DEEP, of our countrymen, around a future that has begun to be projected valuable, mercy to the work of this democratic government (healthy macroeconomy, free press, democracy, masification of programs from dwellings to economic prices, faithful reliable of the international treaties, implementation ad to carry out TLCs with USA and EU -European Community- Camisea, Interoceanic Patway, etc.). Although the economy from countrymen on foot, even does not launch, a great sector of Peruvians trusts in that the next government will tie MACRO AND MICROECONOMY in order we begin to slide for the path of a maintained progress. No wonder then, that the public, excuse reflexively, a generous 32% of approval to the president Toledo at the final of his gestion. Which are the fears of the Peruvians?

1- THEY ARE AFRAID…..that the party that gain, take again en masse, the system of government, like the APRA did it, to little of its ascent to the power in 1985, where they discriminated among without charge (most peruvians) and the apristas that carried a specific card.…… that revert (for badly), the present management of the economy. Toledo is leaving around 15 000 million dollars of reserves. Garcia and Fujimori, left the chests of the state completely empty at the final of their governments, with the condition that Fujimori, left many visible works (highways, schools, networks of communication, elimination of the guerrilla,etc).……that someone intend again to nationalize the banking, to stop paying to the FMI, or emit MUC (subsidized), dollars, fact cleverly taken advantage by some partisans to be enriched at the cost of reselling to double or triple these bills……. THAT for the main governmental charges appoint -according to his humor- to his friends (12 apostles, Remigio Morales, etc) …….that he does not respect the private property, to be empowered again from the dollars of the savers….that he does not respect the independence of the powers of the State and treat coercively to take the Judicial Power, etc. To gain Humala, it would be lamentable that he intend manu-militari (like Evo Morales), to nationalize our energetic reserves. It would be the worst one of the messages, in a world globalized with each time more interdependencies, where the negotiation (understanding because of it profits of the two parts), is and should continue being the golden rule.

2-That an adequate reading of the perceptions that to sotto vocce slide in extensive layers of our population, imports, is also showed in other instances. The newspaper http://www.elcomercioperu.com.pe/online/photo/apoyo21405.jpg El Comercio, depict also today, with statistical percentage, the main REASONS BY THE ONE LOURDES FLORES LOST THE ELECTIONS -something that all of us knew-. Instead of grafting in its presidential plate and list of congresspersons, to personages of various social strata, Lourdes prioritized to candidates of the class “A”, what did that be to perceived her as the candidate of the rich. The “Small Lulu”, did not do anything by reverting this perception, nevertheless to include an excellent program of government. A presidential plate comprising Lourdes, Paniagua and Rey (Castañeda/Yehude Simon), for certain would have a different type of luck. They exist also other factors, inside them, the strong fights to the interior of the UN http://www.larepublica.com.pe/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=110676&Itemid=2&fecha_edicion=2006-05-14 (National Union), revealed today crudely by Bedoya de Vivanco. As despite it, Lourdes lost nearly, it remains the flavor that an united right could have earned the elections. An union dificcult to be achieved for the moment (by immaturity), because ALL THERE, WANT TO BE PRESIDENTS.

3- Returning to the perceptual fears, one must recall that some of these, can mutate. As Alfredo Torres –Chief of AOM- himself affirms, the distance of 9 points (Garcia: 56% and Humala :44%), is not very large and can be SHORTENED FOR PERCEPTIVE CHANGES OF THE LAST HOUR. It suffices with submitting to Garcia, to attacks to his previous bad government to destabilize him. By the quick thing he has already descended 1 point. With 6 points more, both will be drawn, to consequence of the double effect of the appreciations of the surveys. Concept shared by the political analyst Martin Tanaka, who adds that the fight promises to be hard. To colophon, the winning strategy of Humala is therefore an alone one: to denounce daily the errors of the previous government of Garcia, especially those analyzed in the paragraph 1. Under these circumstances, Garcia could request to state of the start of a “dirty war”, not to attend to the presidential debate. If this occurs, one must continue stripping the weaknesses of his previous government, without being intimidated. He at any rate will attend the debate, by the urgency “to show that he has changed”, something dificcult to digest. It is extremely dificcult that a man change at the age of 56 of age.

Percepciones electorales

La encuesta de Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado –AOM- (14/05/06. Margen de error: 4,4%. Nivel de confianza:95%), encomendada y publicada por el Dominical de El Comercio - en torno a la intención de voto presidencial- aparte de confirmar lo que un grueso sector de peruanos, piensa en torno a bondades y defectos de los candidatos, permite tambien escrutar LOS TEMORES MAS PROFUNDOS, de nuestros compatriotas, en torno a un futuro que ha empezado a proyectarse valioso, merced a la labor de este gobierno democratico (macroeconomia boyante y sana, libertad de prensa, democracia, masificacion de programas de viviendas a precios economicos, fiel cumplidor de los tratados internacionales, implementacion ad portas de TLCs con USA y la UE -Comunidad Europea- Camisea,Via Interoceánica, etc.). Aunque la economia de los de a pie, aun no despega, un gran sector de peruanos confia en que el proximo gobierno LIGUE MACRO Y MICROECONOMIA y empecemos a deslizarnos por la senda de un progreso sostenido. No es de extrañar entonces, que el respetable, dispense reflexivamente, un generoso 32% de aprobación al presidente Toledo al final de su gestion. ¿Cuales son los temores de los peruanos?

1-TEMEN…..que el partido que gane, vuelva a copar masivamente, el aparato estatal, como lo hiciera el APRA, a poco de su ascenso al poder en 1985, donde discriminara entre los sin cargo (mayoria de peruanos) y apristas carnetizados…….QUE revierta (para mal), el manejo actual de la economia. Toledo esta dejando alrededor de 15 000 millones de dolares de reservas. Garcia y Fujimori, dejaron las arcas del estado completamente vacias al final de sus gobiernos, con la salvedad de que el ultimo, dejo tras de si muchas obras visibles (carreteras, colegios, redes de comunicación, eliminación del terrorismo,etc).……QUE pretenda nuevamente estatizar la banca, deje de pagar al FMI, o emita dólares MUC (subsidiados), hecho hábilmente aprovechado por partidarizados, para enriquecerse a costa de revender al doble o triple estos billetes……. QUE para los principales cargos gubernamentales designe -de acuerdo a su humor- a sus amigos (12 apostoles, Remigio Morales, etc)…….QUE no respete la propiedad privada, volviendo a apoderarse de los dolares de los ahorristas….QUE no respete la independencia de los poderes del Estado y trate coercitivamente de copar el Poder Judicial, etc. De ganar Humala, seria lamentable que este pretenda manu-militari (mismo Evo), nacionalizar nuestras reservas energeticas. Seria el peor de los mensajes, en un mundo globalizado con cada vez mas interdependencias, donde la negociación (entendiendo por ello ganancias de las dos partes), es y debe seguir siendo la regla de oro.

2-Que una lectura adecuada de las percepciones que a sotto vocce se deslizan en amplias capas de nuestra población, importa, lo demuestran tambien, otras instancias. El diario El Comercio grafica ademas, el dia de hoy, con estadisticas porcentuales, las principales RAZONES POR LAS QUE PERDIO LOURDES FLORES -algo que todos sabiamos-. En lugar de injertar en su plancha presidencial y lista de congresistas, a personajes de variados estratos sociales, Lourdes priorizo en exclusiva a candidatos de la clase “A”, lo que hizo que se la percibiese como la candidata de los ricos. La “Pequeña Lulu”, no hizo nada por revertir esta percepción, no obstante contar con un excelente programa de gobierno. Una plancha presidencial integrada por Lourdes, Paniagua y Rey (Castañeda/Yehude Simon), con toda seguridad les hubiese deparado un tipo distinto de suerte. Existieron tambien -claro-otros factores, dentro de ellos, las fuertes pugnas al interior de UN (Unidad Nacional), reveladas hoy crudamente por Bedoya de Vivanco. Como pese a ello, Lourdes perdio por poco, queda el sabor de que una derecha unida podria haber ganado las elecciones. Una union dificil de lograr por el momento (por inmadurez), ALLI DONDE TODOS QUIEREN SER PRESIDENTES

3- Retornando al tema perceptual, hay que recordar que algunas de estas, mutan. Como lo afirma el propio Alfredo Torres, Director de AOM, la distancia de 9 puntos (Garcia : 56% y Humala :44%), no es muy grande y PUEDE ACORTARSE POR CAMBIOS PERCEPTIVOS DE ULTIMA HORA. Bastaria con someter a Garcia, a ataques a su anterior gobierno para desestabilizarlo. Por lo pronto ya descendio 1 punto. Si cae 6 mas, ambos estarian empatados, a consecuencia del efecto doble de las apreciaciones de las encuestas. Concepto compartido por el politologo Martin Tanaka, quien agrega que la lucha promete ser dura. A colofón, la estrategia ganadora de Humala es pues una sola : denunciar diariamente los errores del anterior gobierno de Garcia, especialmente los analizados en el acápite 1. En estas circunstancias, Garcia podria solicitar a tenor del inicio de una “guerra sucia”, no asistir al debate presidencial. Si esto ocurre, hay que seguir desnudando las flaquezas de su anterior gobierno, sin intimidarse. El, de todos modos asistira al debate, por la urgencia de “demostrar que ha cambiado”, algo dificil de digerir. Es extremadamente dificil que un hombre cambie a los 56 años de edad.