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Monday, October 30, 2006

When will it happen a great earthquake in Lima?



From beginnings of the 2006, one comes registering so far, a total of 84 seismic movements in the whole Peru. Alone during September/2006, were detected in Lima: 14 light seismic movements (Richter Scale -RS-) and in October: 12. The 20/10/06, it happened a 6,4 RS :moderate seismic movement (the most intense, until now) and the 26/10, another of 5,8 RS. All these seismic movements have had their focuses (origin, of liberated energy), in litospheric marine bottoms, 50 km far away of the of the coasts, to depths among 30 to 40 km, with epicenters (superficial areas, above the focus), in Pisco, Ica and Cañete, 170 km southeast of Lima. With the almost confirmation of the theories of tectonic of plates and expansion of the marine bottoms, most of seismologists, attribute like cause of these seismic movements to frictions, displacements or convergent subductions (a plate under another) : Nazca Plate under the South American Plate. Since in 1687, 1966 and 1974, they took place in Lima earthquakes of 7 or but grades in RS -with devastating effects- an exaggerated sensibility exists when these happen in Lima, in spite of its low intensity. The presence of a serie of seismic movements in the last 2 months - is uncommon- pointing the question of if they won't be the prelude of an earthquake of proportions?.

I) according to E.J. Tarbuck and T.K. Lutgens, the Peruvian coasts being, located throughout a convergent axis of tectonic plates (Plate of Cocos, Plate of Nasca) -that colission of continuous, accumulating energy -it must not pass more than 100 years, without it happens again another earthquake of proportions in one of these countries : Ecuador/Chile/Peru (long term forecast). Maps and historical registrations of the periodicity of the worst earthquakes are had. It is so, because once liberated the accumulated energy of an earthquake, the elastic previously tightened forces, regained their initial level, alone for ciclically get additional energy (because of new frictions or, subductions), conditioning new and future earthquakes. From the last great earthquake happened in Lima in 1974, it have already spent 30 years. The more come closer to the 100 years, the possibilities of occurrence of a great earthquake, are bigger. II) The possibility that it happens before (this year or in the following 5), is also real, but the possibilities to predict temporary very near occurrences: days, weeks (short term forecast), is difficult at the moment. Nevertheless it must be pertinent to take cautions to scale, because the populational high density of Lima and some of their adjacent districts, make fear a catastrophe of proportions. To keep in mind that Richter’Scale, is not so exact. The earthquake of Armenia (1988: 25 000 deaths), had 6,9 -RS-, those of San Fernando/California (1971), Northridge/California (1994) and Kobe/Japan (1995) : 6,5, 6,7 and 6,9 -RS- respectively. III) WHAT TO DO?. Follow the recommendations of the engineer :Julio Kuroiwa, who proposes the construction of sustainable cities with growth and expansion toward sure areas (solid land and houses). To transfer populations in risk (Villa El Salvador, margins of the rivers Rimac and Chillon, high altitude areas with fragile adobe constructions: Moquegua, Tacna, Chachapoyas), to areas but sure. Besides it, follow the recommendations of INDECI: mockeries, recognition of sure areas to the interior and external of buildings and houses and qualification of extensive evacuation areas, in the event of earthquakes associated to tsunamis.

Terremoto a la vista?

Desde inicios del 2006, se vienen registrando hasta la fecha, un total de 84 movimientos sismicos en todo el Perú. Solo durante Setiembre/2006, se detectaron en Lima: 14 movimientos de intensidad leve (Escala de Richter -ER-) y en Octubre : 12. El 20/10/06, ocurrió un sismo 6,4 ER : moderado (el más intenso, hasta el momento) y el 26/10, otro de 5,8 ER. Todos estos sismos han tenido sus focos (origen, de liberación de energia), en los fondos litosféricos marinos a más de 50 km de las costas, a profundidades entre 30 a 40 km, con epicentros (areas superficiales, encima del foco), en Pisco, Ica y Cañete, 170 km al suroeste, de Lima. Con la casi comprobación de las teorias de tectónica de placas y expansión de los fondos marinos, la mayoria de sismólogos, atribuye como causa de estos movimientos sismicos a rozamientos, desplazamientos o subducciones convergentes (una placa debajo de otra), de la Placa de Nazca debajo de la Placa Sudamericana. Desde que en 1687, 1966 y 1974, se produjeran en Lima terremotos de 7 o mas grados en la ER -con efectos devastadores- existe una exagerada sensibilidad cuando estos ocurren en Lima, a despecho de su baja intensidad. La presencia de esta serie de movimientos sismicos en los últimos 2 meses -es desusual- ameritando la pregunta de ¿si no seran el preludio de un sismo de proporciones?.

I) De acuerdo a E.J. Tarbuck y T.K. Lutgens, estando las costas peruanas, ubicadas a lo largo de un eje convergente de placas tectonicas (Placa de los Cocos, Placa de Nasca) -que colisionan de continuo, acumulando energia- no han de pasar más de 100 años, sin que vuelva a ocurrir otro sismo de proporciones en uno de estos paises :Ecuador/Chile/Peru (pronósticos a largo plazo). Se tienen mapas y registros históricos de la peridiocidad de los sismos graves. Es asi, porque una vez liberada la energia generadora de un terremoto, las fuerzas elasticas previamente tensadas, retoman su nivel inicial, solo para reacumular –cíclicamente- energia adicional (a causa de nuevo rozamientos o, subducciones), gestadores de nuevos y futuros terremotos. Desde el ultimo gran terremoto ocurrido en Lima en 1974, han pasado ya 30 años. Cuanto más nos acerquemos a los 100 años, las posibilidades de ocurrencia de un gran terremoto, son mayores. II) La posibilidad de que ocurra antes (este año o en los siguientes 5), también es real, empero las posibilidades de predecir ocurrencias temporales muy cercanas :dias, semanas (pronósticos a corto plazo), es dificil por el momento. No obstante seria pertinente tomar precauciones a escala, porque la alta densidad poblacional de Lima Cercado y algunos de sus distritos colindantes, hacen temer una catástrofe de proporciones. Tener en cuenta que Escala de Richter, no es tan exacta. El terremoto de Armenia (1988 : 25 000 muertos), tuvo 6,9 -ER-, los de San Fernando/California (1971), Northridge/California (1994) y Kobe/Japón (1995) : 6,5, 6,7 y 6,9 -ER- respectivamente. III) ¿QUE HACER?. Seguir las recomendaciones del ingeniero Julio Kuroiwa, quien propone la edificación de ciudades sostenibles con crecimiento y expansión hacia zonas seguras (terrenos y edificaciones solidas). Trasladar poblaciones en riesgo (Villa El Salvador, márgenes de los rios Rimac y Chillon, areas con fragiles construcciones de adobe :altoandinas de Moquegua, Tacna, Chachapoyas), a zonas mas seguras. Agregar a ello , las recomendaciones de INDECI: simulacros, reconocimiento de zonas seguras al interior y exterior de edificios y casas y habilitacion de extensas areas de evacuación, en caso de terremotos asociados a tsunamis.

14 Comments:

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

hoy 15 de agosto 2007, terremoto en lima , 7.5 grados... mamaaa

6:56 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Terremoto 15 de agosto 7.9 horrible ... comenso a las 6 y 42 pm... se registran a las 10:30 pm 19 muertos y 220 heridos ... ya se levanto la alerta de tsunami. Que Dios nos ayude y que no se repita.

8:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Terremoto 15 de agosto ya dejo 350 muertos y mas de 1000 heridos

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