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Sunday, October 08, 2006

El Niño's phenomenon : we need satellites to watch him.



Explanation in Spanish: Foto satelitales. Izquierda: 15/Set.2006 : en rojo y amarillo :areas superficiales marinas relativamente mas calientes, que lo normal . En verde : normal. Azul: aguas marinas relativamente mas frias. Foto satelital Derecha. 20/Sept,1997.
From last (September) month, circulate profusely for Internet, dozens of satellital pictures exhibiting the warming and elevation of height of extensive savannas of sea waters of the ocean tropical center/east/Pacific/ -in front of our north coast-. These pictures, captured by American (Jason/Aqua) satellites, having thermal sensors and altiméters radars, are an average of pictures captured during 10 days, endowed with great precision. For the marine extension of the warmed waters (red areas of satellite pictures), some European specialists fear the emergency of the ENSO (El Niño, Phenomenon : torrential rains in the north of Peru, for several months, droughts in the south, reduction of fish and fertilizers birds, throughout the coast, affectation of crops, cattle raising, etc.), from ends of this year. In front of it, the ENFEN (Multisectorial Committee, in charge of the National Study of the ENSO's Phenomenon, conformed by 6 institutions), branch of International ERFEN (Regional Study of ENSO's Phenomenon), has emitted an Official statement. susceptible to critic - calling to the calm. "because the ENSO, will be weak". We say susceptible to the critic, because at least in 3 paragraphs of the official statement, they spoke about the existence of conditions for the realization of this phenomenon (elevation of the temperature of the air and of TSM (superficial sea temperature), delay in the spawns of the anchovy) and in the other ones, that all is normal. For if it was little, Bill Patzert, oceanographer and climatologist of NASA / JPL, has declared that the ENSO, will be weak , but in the south part of EE UU, noticing that according to the circumstances a bigger scaling could be given in the following months, for what the monitorizatión should be constant.

In front of it, the institutions of our country - like others of neighboring countries - continue always elaborating forecasts with the same ancient helps: analysis of data picked up by intelligent buoys, studies of weather data captured by instruments disseminated throughout the country. By the way, these detection systems, were already installed from 1980. Nevertheless, 2 catastrophic (1982/83 and 1992/93) ENSO happened, since then. Enough reason to question these Systems of Earth. Are they safe? Do they carry out right forecasts in front of the ENSO's threat? Does their low cost justify its presence?. We say it because they exist alternative but efficient for forecast these phenomena. Nigeria, affected of old for deforestations, droughts, floods, eruption of volcanos, has just launched their second own (NigeriaSat2) satellite, inside a program that contemplates to install a network of satellites for prevention of natural disasters. The satellites, provide sure data (non alone instant of Peru, but of the rest of the world - what is better-) and not every 15 days, as they attest it the Official statements of ENFEN. The construction (can be built by UNI's engineers) and launching of each satellite costs 10 million dollars, to those that it should be added about 5 million annual dollars by maintenance. If you want to know if they are economic or not, observe these figures: 3,000 million dollars in lost materials in the peruvian ENSO of the 82/83 and another similar in that of the 92/93 (total:6 000 million dollars). For us, the procedures of forecast of natural disasters in our country, should open the way to satellital technologies. Argentina, Mexico and Brazil manufacture their own satellites and Chile is to throw the first one, of French production. To throw them -like european satellites- we must appeal to Russian rockets.
Necesitamos satelites para vigilar al Fenómeno del Niño.
Desde el mes pasado (Septiembre), circulan profusamente por Internet, decenas de fotos satelitales explicitando el calentamiento y elevación de altura de extensas sabanas de aguas del océano Pacifico tropica/centro/oriental -de narices frente a nuestra costa norte-. Estas, captadas por satélites americanos (Jason/Aqua), premunidos de sensores térmicos y radares altimétricos, son representativas de fotos captadas durante 10 dias, dotadas de gran precisión. Por la extensión marina de las aguas calentadas (areas rojas de fotos satelitales), algunos especialistas europeos temen la emergencia de un nuevo y catastrófico Fenómeno del Niño (lluvias torrenciales en el norte del Peru, por varios meses, sequias en el sur, merma de peces y aves guaneras a lo largo del litoral, afectación de cosechas, ganaderia, etc.), desde fines de este año. Frente a ello el ENFEN (Comité Multisectorial, encargado del estudio nacional del Fenómeno del Niño, conformado por 6 instituciones), rama del Internacional ERFEN (Estudio Regional del Fenómeno del Niño), ha emitido un Comunicado – susceptible a las criticas- llamando a la calma …”porque el Niño será leve”… Decimos susceptible a las criticas, porque al menos en 3 acapites del comunicado, explicitan la existencia de condicionantes para la realización de este fenómeno (elevación de la temperatura del aire y del TSM (temperatura superficial marina), retraso en el desove de la anchoveta) y en los otros, que todo esta normal. Por si fuera poco, Bill Patzert, oceanografo y climatologo de la NASA/JPL, ha declarado que el Niño será leve, pero en la parte sur de EE UU, advirtiendo que según las circunstancias podria darse un escalamiento mayor en los siguientes meses, por lo que la monitorización deberia ser constante.

Frente a ello, las instituciones de nuestro pais -al igual que otras de paises vecinos- continúan elaborando pronósticos con las mismas ayudas de siempre : analisis de datos recogidos por boyas inteligentes, estudios de datos metereológicos captados por instrumentos ad hoc, diseminados a lo largo del pais. Por cierto, estos sistemas de deteccion, ya estaban instalados desde 1980. No obstante, ocurrieron 2 Niños catastróficos (1982/83 y 1992/93). Razón suficiente para cuestionar estos Sistemas de Tierra. Son seguros? Realizan pronósticos acertados frente a la amenaza del Niño? Su bajo coste justifica su presencia?. Lo decimos porque existen alternativas más eficientes para preveer estos fenómenos. Nigeria, afectada de antiguo por deforestaciones, sequias, inundaciones, erupción de volcanes, acaba de lanzar su segundo satelite propio (NigeriaSat2), dentro de un programa que contempla instalar una red de satélites para prevencion de desatres naturales. Los satélites, proporcionan datos seguros, a cada instante no solo del Peru, sino del resto del mundo -lo que es mejor-) y no cada 15 dias, como lo atestiguan los Comunicados del ENFEN. La construccion (que la pueden hacer los ingenieros de la UNI) y lanzamiento de cada satelite cuesta 10 millones de dolares, a los que se debe añadir unos 5 millones de dolares anuales por mantenimiento. Si desean saber si son economicos o no, observen estas cifras : 3,000 millones de dolares en perdidas materiales en el Niño del 82/83 y otro tanto en el del 92/93 (total:6 000 millones de dolares). Para nosotros, los procedimientos de prevision de desastres naturales en nuestro pais, deben dar paso a tecnologías satelitales. Argentina, Mexico y Brasil fabrican sus propios satelites y Chile esta por lanzar el primero, de fabricación francesa. Para lanzarlos al igual que los europeos, recurren a cohetes rusos.

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