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Wednesday, October 21, 2009

THE NATURE OF TECHNOLOGY


The economist, engineer and mathematician Brian Arthur (Intelligent Systems Lab, PARC), author of The Nature of Technology (2009, Simón & Schuster/USA), generates controversy after proposing that technology (less pure and but commercial), leads the land of innovations before the science and economy in a way don't usually thought. The author sustains that everything emerges of technology, existing between this and science a kind of a symbiosis and coevolution. Arthur proposes a theory of technological innovation by means of recombination of existent technologies (combinatorial model), putting as examples of constant innovation to Cambridge (1920) and Silicon Valley.

The author argues that scientific and technological progress is elaborated by independent human geniuses endowed with a deep knowledge of existent technologies, combining them of novo. According to Arthur our wealth and well-being come from technologies in constant change acting the market as arbiter of these innovations. In Silicon Valley, where foreseers usually fail, it is now discussed when will take place the spontaneous emergency of the singularity (artificial intelligence similar to the human one), due to a quick convergence of a growing and exponential number of technological changes (supercomputatión, genes sequencing), before the growing decrease of costs. Finally, Arthur argues that but that to be dominated by autonomous technologies, humans will always control a set of basic technologies that will extend our humanity.

LA NATURALEZA DE LA TECNOLOGIA

El economista, ingeniero y matemático Brian Arthur (Intelligent Systems Lab, PARC), autor of The Nature of Technology (2009, Simon & Schuster/USA), genera controversia tras proponer que la tecnología (menos pura y mas comercial), lidera el terreno de las innovaciones muy por delante de la ciencia y la economía y, no al revés como usualmente se piensa. El autor sostiene que todo emerge de la tecnología, existiendo entre esta y la ciencia una especie de simbiosis y coevolución. Arthur propone una teoria de innovación tecnológica mediante recombinación de tecnologias existentes (modelo combinatorio), poniendo como ejemplos de innovación constante a Cambridge (1920) y Silicon Valley.

El autor arguye que el progreso científico y tecnológico es elaborado por genios humanos independientes dotados de un profundo conocimiento de las tecnologías existentes, combinándolas de novo. Segun Arthur nuestra riqueza y bienestar proceden de tecnologías en constante cambio actuando el mercado de árbitro de estas innovaciones. En Silicon Valley, donde ocurren mas fallas que aciertos predictivos, se discute hoy cuando se producirá la emergencia espontánea de la singularidad (inteligencia artificial igual a la humana), por convergencia acelerada de un número creciente y exponencial de cambios tecnológicos (supercomputación, secuencia de genes), ante la creciente disminucion de costos. Finalmente, Arthur arguye que mas que ser dominados por tecnologías autónomas, siempre controlaremos un set de tecnologias básicas que extenderán nuestra humanidad.

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